Publications

Peer-Reviewed Journal Articles

“Grads on the Go: Measuring College-Specific Labor Markets for Graduates ” (in press). Journal of Policy Analysis and Management. Co-authors: Johnathan Conzelmann, Brad Hershbein, Shawn Martin, Andrew Simon, & Kevin Stange

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This paper introduces a new measure of the labor markets served by colleges and universities across the United States. About 50 percent of recent college graduates are living and working in the metro area nearest the institution they attended, with this figure climbing to 67 percent in-state. The geographic dispersion of alumni is more than twice as great for highly selective 4-year institutions as for 2-year institutions. However, more than one-quarter of 2-year institutions disperse alumni more diversely than the average public 4-year institution. In one application of these data, we find that the average strength of the labor market to which a college sends its graduates predicts college-specific intergenerational economic mobility. In a second application, we quantify the extent of “brain drain” across areas and illustrate the importance of considering migration patterns of college graduates when estimating the social return on public investment in higher education.

“College Majors and Skills: Evidence from the Universe of Online Job Ads” (in press). Labour Economics. Co-authors: Brad Hershbein, Shawn Martin, & Kevin Stange

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We use the near universe of U.S. online job ads to document four new facts about the skills employers demand from college majors. First, some skills—social and organizational—are demanded from all majors whereas others—financial and customer service—are demanded from only particular majors. Second, some majors have skill demand profiles that mirror overall demand for college graduates, such as Business and General Engineering, while other majors, such as Nursing and Education, have relatively rare skill profiles. Third, cross-major differences in skill profiles explain considerable wage variation. Fourth, although major-specific skill demand varies across place, this variation plays little role in explaining wage variation. College majors can thus be reasonably conceptualized as portable bundles of skills.

“Banking on Dual Credit: Broadening Opportunities to Earn College Credit in High School and the Transition to College” (in press). Educational Researcher. Co-author: Nicole Ross

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This paper studies state-developed courses in career and technical education (CTE) that offer students the opportunity to earn college credit during high school. Using a regression-discontinuity approach, we examine the effects of passing the end-of-course exam necessary to secure college credit on postsecondary enrollment and choice. We find that barely passing a CTE dual-credit exam increases the likelihood of attending a public in-state two-year institution, with at least part of that increased propensity stemming from a reduction in the likelihood of attending a private in-state institution. Further, we find suggestive evidence that the boost in the likelihood of attending a public in-state two-year college is relatively larger for male compared to female students.

“School-Based Healthcare and Absenteeism: Evidence from Telemedicine” (in press). Education Finance and Policy. Co-author: Sarah Komisarow

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The prevalence of school-based healthcare has increased markedly over the past decade. We study a modern mode of school-based healthcare, telemedicine, that offers the potential to reach places and populations with historically low access to such care. School-based telemedicine clinics (SBTCs) provide students with access to healthcare during the regular school day through private videoconferencing with a healthcare provider. We exploit variation over time in SBTC openings across schools in three rural districts in North Carolina. We find that school-level SBTC access reduces the likelihood that a student is chronically absent by 2.5 percentage points (29 percent) and reduces the number of days absent by about 0.8 days (10 percent). Relatedly, access to an SBTC increases the likelihood of math and reading test-taking by between 1.8-2.0 percentage points (about 2 percent). Heterogeneity analyses suggest that these effects are driven by male students. Finally, we see suggestive evidence that SBTC access reduces violent or weapons-related disciplinary infractions among students but has little influence on other forms of misbehavior.

“School Segregation in the Era of Color-Blind Jurisprudence and School Choice” (2023). Urban Affairs Review, 59(2), 406-446. Co-authors: Charles T. Clotfelter, Helen F. Ladd, & Mavzuna Turaeva

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The decades-long resistance to federally imposed school desegregation entered a new phase at the turn of the new century. At that time, federal courts stopped pushing racial balance as a remedy for past segregation and adopted in its place a color-blind approach to evaluating school district assignment plans. Using data that span 1998 to 2016 from North Carolina, one of the first states to come under this color-blind dictum, we examine the ways in which households and policy makers took actions that had the effect of reducing the amount of interracial contact in K-12 schools within counties. We divide these reductions in interracial contact into portions due to the private school and charter school sectors, the existence of multiple school districts, and racial disparities between schools within districts and sectors. For most counties, the last of these proves to be the biggest, though in some counties private schools, charter schools, or multiple districts played a deciding role. In addition, we decompose segregation in the state’s 11 metropolitan areas, finding that more than half can be attributed to racial disparities inside school districts. We also measure segregation by economic status, finding that it, like racial segregation, increased in the largest urban counties, but elsewhere changed little over the period.

“College Comes to High School: Participation and Performance in Tennessee’s Innovative Wave of Dual-Credit Courses” (2022). Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis, 44(2), 313-341. Co-author: Tom Swiderski

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We analyze the rollout of a Statewide Dual-Credit (SDC) program intended to expand access to college-level courses during high school. We find that SDC increased early postsecondary course-taking among students in the middle of the achievement distribution, especially through courses in vocational subjects, without decreasing participation in Advanced Placement (AP). However, SDC was mostly offered by schools already providing courses in similar subject areas, and was less frequently offered in small relative to large schools, thus doing little to ameliorate placed-based gaps in course-taking opportunities. Further, a majority of students failed the end-of-course exams necessary to secure college credit, and those who passed closely resemble students who pass AP exams. Low SDC exam pass rates predict school-level discontinuation of SDC courses over and above a range of other factors that reflect student demand and staffing capacity.

“Do Teacher Assistants Improve Student Outcomes? Evidence from School Funding Cutbacks in North Carolina” (2021). Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis, 43(2), 280-304. Co-authors: Helen F. Ladd & Calen Clifton

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This paper examines the influence of teacher assistants and other personnel on outcomes for elementary school students during a period of recession-induced cutbacks in teacher assistants. Using panel data from North Carolina, we exploit the state’s unique system of financing its local public schools to identify the causal effects of teacher assistants, controlling for other staff, on measures of student achievement. We find consistent evidence of positive effects of teacher assistants, an understudied staffing category, on student performance in reading and math. We also find larger positive effects of teacher assistants on achievement outcomes for students of color and students in high-poverty schools than for white students and students in more affluent schools. We conclude that teacher assistants are a cost-effective means of raising student achievement, especially in reading.

“Why is Math Cheaper than English? Understanding Cost Differences in Higher Education” (2021). Journal of Labor Economics, 39(2), 397-435. Co-authors: Kevin Stange, Fernando Furquim, Andrew Simon, & John Sawyer

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This paper establishes five new facts about instructional costs in higher education using department-level data from a broad range of institutions. Costs vary widely across fields, ranging from electrical engineering (90 percent higher than English) to math (25 percent lower). This pattern is largely explained by differences in class size and faculty pay. Some STEM fields experienced steep declines in expenditures over the past 17 years while others saw increases. Changes in class size and teaching loads alongside a shift toward contingent faculty explain these trends. Finally, the association between online instruction and instructional costs is statistically indistinguishable from zero.

“Dual-Credit Courses and the Road to College: Experimental Evidence from Tennessee” (2020). Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 9(3), 686-719. Co-authors: Nate Schwartz & Susan Dynarski

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Dual-credit courses expose high school students to college-level content and provide the opportunity to earn college credits, in part to smooth the transition to college. With the Tennessee Department of Education, we conduct the first randomized controlled trial of the effects of dual-credit math coursework on a range of high school and college outcomes. We find that the dual-credit advanced algebra course alters students’ subsequent high school math course-taking, reducing enrollment in remedial math and boosting enrollment in precalculus and Advanced Placement math courses. We fail to detect an effect of the dual-credit math course on overall rates of college enrollment. However, the course induces some students to choose four-year universities instead of two-year colleges, particularly for those in the middle of the math achievement distribution and those first exposed to the opportunity to take the course in 11th rather than 12th grade. We see limited evidence of improvements in early math performance during college.

“Math Acceleration in Elementary School: Access and Effects on Student Outcomes” (2020). Economics of Education Review, 74, 1-21. Co-author: Matt Lenard

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This paper examines curricular acceleration in mathematics during elementary school using administrative data from a large, diverse school district that recently implemented a targeted, test-based acceleration policy. We first characterize access to advanced math and then estimate effects of acceleration in math on measures of short-run academic achievement as well as non-test-score measures of grit, engagement with schoolwork, future plans, and continued participation in the accelerated track. Experiences and effects of math acceleration differ markedly for girls and boys. Girls are less likely to be nominated for math acceleration and perform worse on the qualifying test, relative to boys with equivalent baseline performance. We find negative effects of acceleration on short-run retention of math knowledge for girls, but no such performance decay for boys. After initial exposure to accelerated math, girls are less likely than boys to appear in the accelerated track during late elementary school and at the start of middle school.

“How Does an Accountability Program that Targets Achievement Gaps Affect Student Performance?” (2020). Education Finance and Policy, 15(1), 45-74. Co-author: Brian Jacob

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In 2011, the U.S. Department of Education granted states the opportunity to apply for waivers from the core requirements of No Child Left Behind (NCLB). In exchange, many states implemented systems of differentiated accountability that included a focus on schools with the largest achievement gaps between subgroups of students. We use administrative data from Michigan in a series of regression-discontinuity analyses to study the effects of these school reforms on schools and students. We find some evidence that targeting schools for such reforms led to small, short-run reductions in the within-school math achievement gap. However, these reductions were driven by stagnant performance of lower-achieving students alongside declines in the performance of their higher-achieving peers. These findings serve as a cautionary tale for the capacity of the accountability provisions embedded in the recent reauthorization of NCLB, the Every Student Succeeds Act (ESSA), to meaningfully improve student and school outcomes.

“Building Bridges to Life after High School: Contemporary Career Academies and Student Outcomes” (2019). Economics of Education Review, 68, 161-178. Co-authors: Matt Lenard & Colleen G. Paeplow

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Career academies serve an increasingly wide range of students. This paper examines the contemporary profile of students entering career academies in a large, diverse school district and estimates causal effects of participation in one of the district’s well-regarded academies on a range of high school and college outcomes. Exploiting the lottery-based admissions process of this technology-focused academy, we find that academy enrollment increases the likelihood of high school graduation by about 8 percentage points and boosts rates of college enrollment for males but not females. Analysis of intermediate outcomes suggests that effects on attendance and industry-relevant certification at least partially mediate the overall high school graduation effect.

“Raising the Bar for College Admission: North Carolina’s Increase in Minimum Math Course Requirements” (2019). Education Finance and Policy, 14(3), 492-521. Co-authors: Charles T. Clotfelter & Helen F. Ladd

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In this paper we explore the effects of a statewide policy change that altered the number of high school math courses required for admission to any public four-year institution in North Carolina on math course-taking in high school, postsecondary enrollment in a UNC institution, and performance once enrolled. We use administrative data on cohorts of 8th grade students from 1999 to 2006. We document and exploit variation by district over time in the math course-taking environment encountered by students. Purely as a result of a student’s year of birth and location in the state, students faced different probabilities of encountering a sequence of math courses sufficient to qualify for admission to the University of North Carolina. Within an instrumental variables setup, we examine effects of this policy shift on students grouped into quintiles by their 8th grade math test scores. We find that students took more math courses in high school following the state’s announcement, with relatively larger increases for students in the middle and bottom quintiles. Our results suggest that increased math course-taking in high school led to higher high school graduation rates. More high school math also led to increases in enrollment rates at universities in the UNC system, with the largest increases being in the quintiles of student achievement from which universities were already drawing the bulk of their enrollees. Finally, we find scant evidence of boosts in post-enrollment college performance due to increased math course-taking in high school.

“Multifaceted Aid for Low-Income Students and College Outcomes: Evidence from North Carolina” (2018). Economic Inquiry, 56(1), 278-303. Co-authors: Charles T. Clotfelter & Helen F. Ladd

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We study the evolution of a campus-based aid program for low-income students that began with grant-heavy financial aid and later added a suite of non-financial supports. We find little to no evidence that program eligibility during the early years (2004-2006), in which students received additional institutional grant aid and few non-financial supports, improved postsecondary progress, performance, or completion. In contrast, program-eligible students in more recent cohorts (2007-2010), when the program supplemented grant-heavy aid with an array of non-financial supports, were more likely to meet credit accumulation benchmarks toward timely graduation and earned higher GPAs than their barely ineligible counterparts.

“School Entry, Compulsory Schooling, and Human Capital Accumulation: Evidence from Michigan” (2016). The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, 16(4), 1-29. Co-author: Rachel Rosen

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Extant research on school entry and compulsory schooling laws finds that these policies increase the high school graduation rate of relatively younger students, but weaken their academic performance in early grades. In this paper, we explore the evolution of postsecondary impacts of the interaction of school entry and compulsory schooling laws in Michigan. We employ a regression-discontinuity (RD) design using longitudinal administrative data to examine effects on high school performance, college enrollment, choice, and persistence. On average, we find that children eligible to start school at a relatively younger age are more likely to complete high school, but underperform while enrolled, compared to their counterparts eligible to start school at a relatively older age. In turn, these students are 2 percentage points more likely to first attend a two-year college and enroll in fewer total postsecondary semesters, relative to their older counterparts. We explore heterogeneity in these effects across subgroups of students defined by gender and poverty status. For example, we illustrate that the increase in the high school graduation rate of relatively younger students attributable to the combination of school entry and compulsory schooling laws is driven entirely by impacts on economically disadvantaged students.

“The Changing Landscape of Tuition and Enrollment in American Public Higher Education” (2016). RSF: The Russell Sage Foundation Journal of the Social Sciences, 2(1), 42-68. Co-author: Dave E. Marcotte

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The costs of public higher education have risen dramatically, causing anger among students and concern among policymakers worried about falling college completion rates. In this paper, we explore how public tuition costs affect postsecondary enrollment choices. We examine changes over time in the enrollment decisions of students in states where tuition and fees at public four-year institutions increased rapidly, compared to changes for observationally similar students in states with more modest tuition increases. Using student-level data on 12th graders in 1992 and 2004 linked to institution-level data, we find a relative decline in the likelihood of attending an in-state public four-year institution among high school graduates from states where public tuition costs increased substantially over this time period. Students in states where public tuition increased the most were appreciably more likely to enroll in a public two-year college than their counterparts in states that adopted more modest increases. We explore heterogeneity in this pattern of substitution between institutions of varying selectivity and control and for students in policy-relevant socio-demographic subgroups, including those in different parts of the 12th-grade achievement distribution. Generally, large tuition increases at public four-year colleges have weakened the propensity of high school graduates to enroll in such institutions in their state, and increased their likelihood of enrollment in less prestigious in-state public colleges, out-of-state public institutions, or private universities. These effects are most pronounced among students from families of low socioeconomic status, and non-elite students who perform below the 90th percentile on 12th-grade math tests.

“Marginal Pricing and Student Investment in Higher Education” (2016). Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 35(2), 441-471. Co-author: Kevin M. Stange

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This paper examines the effect of marginal price on students’ educational investments using rich administrative data on students at Michigan public universities. Marginal price refers to the amount colleges charge for each additional credit taken in a semester. Institutions differ in how they price credits above the full-time minimum (of 12 credits), with many institutions reducing the marginal price of such credits to zero. We find that a zero marginal price induces a modest share of students (i.e., 7 percent) to attempt up to one additional class (i.e., 3 credits) but also increases withdrawals and lowers course performance. The analysis generally suggests minimal impacts on credits earned and the likelihood of meeting “on-time” benchmarks toward college completion, though estimates for these outcomes are less precise and more variable across specifications. Consistent with theory, the effect on attempted credits is largest among students who would otherwise locate at the full-time minimum, which includes lower-achieving and socioeconomically disadvantaged students.

“The Missing Manual: Using National Student Clearinghouse Data to Track Postsecondary Outcomes” (2015). Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis, 37(1S), 53S-79S. Co-authors: Susan Dynarski & Josh Hyman

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This article explores the promises and pitfalls of using National Student Clearinghouse (NSC) data to measure a variety of postsecondary outcomes. We first describe the history of the NSC, the basic structure of its data, and recent research interest in using NSC data. Second, using information from the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), we calculate enrollment coverage rates for NSC data over time, by state, institution type, and demographic student subgroups. We find that coverage is highest among public institutions and lowest (but growing) among for-profit colleges. Across students, enrollment coverage is lower for minorities but similar for males and females. We also explore two potentially less salient sources of non-coverage: suppressed student records due to privacy laws and matching errors due to typographic inaccuracies in student names. To illustrate how this collection of measurement errors may affect estimates of the levels and gaps in postsecondary attendance and persistence, we perform several case-study analyses using administrative transcript data from Michigan public colleges. We close with a discussion of practical issues for program evaluators using NSC data.

“Elementary School Interventions: Experimental Evidence on Postsecondary Outcomes.” (2013). Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis, 35(4), 413-436. Co-authors: Kimberly B. Roth & William W. Eaton

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This study exploits a randomized trial of two light-touch elementary school interventions to estimate long-run impacts on postsecondary attendance and attainment. The first is a classroom management technique for developing behavioral skills in children. The second is a curricular intervention aimed at improving students’ core reading skills. We detect no average impact of either intervention on the likelihood of college enrollment or degree receipt, but find heterogeneous effects by student gender and initial level of academic achievement. Assignment to the behavioral intervention increases the likelihood of college attendance for females, especially at 2-year institutions, but has little impact on males. We find suggestive evidence that exposure to the behavioral intervention benefits low-performing students more than high-performers, whereas exposure to the curricular intervention influences college outcomes more for middle- to high-performing students.

“High School Exit Exams and Dropout in an Era of Increased Accountability.” (2013). Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, 32(2), 323-349. Co-author: Dave E. Marcotte

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A key form of student-level accountability is the requirement for students to pass high school exit exams (HSEEs) in order to receive a diploma. In this paper, we examine the impact of HSEEs on dropout during a period when these exams became more common and rigorous. Further, we study whether offering alternate pathways to graduation for students who cannot pass HSEEs moderates any dropout effects. Using a district-grade-level panel assembled from the Common Core of Data, we exploit the fact that new exit exam policies first affect a particular graduating class, so we can isolate the impact of exposure to HSEEs for students in one grade in a district separate from other unaffected grades in the same district. We estimate dropout effects by grade for all students, and by race, sex, and urbanicity. We find that HSEEs increase dropout rates for students in the 12th grade, with especially large effects for African-American students. Dropout effects are uniformly larger in states that do not provide alternate pathways to receive a diploma or alternative credentials for students that cannot pass exit exams. We estimate that 1.25 percent of 12th graders in these states do not graduate with their high school class, likely due to having a diploma withheld because of inability to pass the requisite HSEE.

“The Impact of Tuition Increases on Enrollment at Public Colleges and Universities.” (2011). Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis, 33(4), 435-457. Co-author: Dave E. Marcotte

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In this paper we review recent increases in tuition at public institutions and estimate impacts on enrollment. We use data on all U.S. public 4-year colleges and universities from 1991 to 2006 and illustrate that tuition increased dramatically beginning in the early part of this decade. We examine impacts of such increases on total enrollment and credit hours, and estimate differences by type of institution. We estimate that the average tuition and fee elasticity of total headcount is -0.0958. At the mean, a $100 increase in tuition and fees would lead to a decline in enrollment of about 0.25 percent, with larger effects at Research I universities. We find limited evidence that especially large tuition increases elicit disproportionate enrollment responses.

“Performance Effects of Failure to Make Adequate Yearly Progress (AYP): Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Framework.” (2011). Economics of Education Review, 30(4), 702-723.

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As the No Child Left Behind (NCLB) law moves through the reauthorization process, it is important to understand the basic performance impacts of its central structure of accountability. In this paper, I examine the effects of failure to make Adequate Yearly Progress (AYP) under NCLB on subsequent student math and reading performance at the school level. Using panel data on Maryland elementary and middle schools from 2003 to 2009, I find that the scope of failure matters: Academic performance suffers in the short run in response to school-wide failure. However, schools that meet achievement targets for the aggregate student group, yet fail to meet at least one demographic subgroup’s target see between 3 and 6 percent more students in the failing subgroup score proficiently the following year, compared to if no accountability pressure were in place. I discuss alternative interpretations and policy implications of the main findings.

“The College Double Major and Subsequent Earnings.” (2010). Education Economics, 18(2), 167-189.

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In this study I examine the relationship between graduating from college with two majors rather than one and labor market earnings using the 2003 National Survey of College Graduates. Because institutions are heterogeneous both in terms of overall quality and in the availability of opportunities to double major, I attempt to control for such overarching institutional differences and explore their effects on premiums to completing a double major. On average, I find a double major to earn 3.2% more than his/her single major counterpart. I also find evidence that premiums to double majoring differ across types of institutions: ranging from a near 4% premium at Research and Comprehensive universities to no effect at Liberal Arts colleges. Finally, I investigate the degree to which choices of first and second major academic disciplines affect earnings premiums.

“Unscheduled Closures and Student Performance.” (2008). Education Finance and Policy, 3(3), 316-338. Co-author: Dave E. Marcotte

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Do students perform better on statewide assessments in years in which they have more school days to prepare? We explore this question using data on math and reading assessments taken by students in the third, fifth, and eighth grades since 1994 in Maryland. Our identification strategy is rooted in the fact that tests are administered on the same day(s) statewide in late winter or early spring, so any unscheduled closings due to snow reduce instruction time and are not made up until after the exams are over. We estimate that in academic years with an average number of unscheduled closures (five), the number of third graders performing satisfactorily on state reading and math assessments within a school is nearly 3 percent lower than in years with no school closings. The impacts of closure are smaller for students in fifth and eighth grades. Combining our estimates with actual patterns of unscheduled closings in the last three years, we find that more than half of schools failing to make adequate yearly progress (AYP) in third-grade math or reading, required under No Child Left Behind, would have met AYP if schools had been open on all scheduled days.

Policy Reports and Briefs

Promoting Student Success in Early College Credit Courses (2024). EdResearch for Action, Policy Brief #28. Annenberg Institute, Brown University. Co-authors: Dylan Conger & María Luisa Vásquez

New Data Show How Far Graduates Move from Their College, and Why It Matters (2024). Policy and Research Brief. W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research. Co-authors: Johnathan G. Conzelmann, Brad Hershbein, Shawn Martin, Andrew Simon, & Kevin M. Stange

Understanding the Labor Markets for Graduates of UNC System Institutions (2022). Research Brief. Education Futures Initiative, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Co-author: Johnathan G. Conzelmann

Teacher assistants are needed—now more than ever (2021). Brookings Institution, Brown Center Chalkboard: Washington, DC. Co-authors: Helen F. Ladd & Calen R. Clifton

Why the move to online instruction won’t reduce college costs (2020). Brookings Institution, Brown Center Chalkboard: Washington, DC. Co-author: Kevin M. Stange

Career Academies and the Resurgence of Career and Technical Education in the United States (2018). National Center for Analysis of Longitudinal Data in Education Research. CALDER Policy Brief No.8-0918-1: Washington, DC. Co-author: Matthew Lenard

Building Bridges in High School and Beyond: The Impacts of Apex High School’s Academy of Information Technology on Student Outcomes (2017). Wake County Public School System; Data, Research, and Accountability Department, DRA Report No. 16.33: Cary, NC. Co-authors: Matthew Lenard & Colleen Paeplow

Impacts of International Baccalaureate’s Primary Years Program (PYP) on Student Achievement: Evidence from Michigan and North Carolina. (2015). International Baccalaureate Global Research Office: Bethesda, MD.